Track whether the new US Attorney for SDNY (James McDonald, appointed same week) reverses other foreign corruption cases, and monitor any Trump business dealings with Turkish entities.
This represents significant rule-of-law erosion (selective enforcement favoring geopolitically-aligned actors) and corruption concerns (Halkbank case involved sanctions evasion benefiting Turkey, a Trump-favored nation). The precedent of dropping major enforcement actions for foreign policy reasons scores high on institutional capture. While it has moderate hype elements, the governance harm clearly dominates with a +32 margin.