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Methodology v2.2

Full algorithmic transparency

New in v2.2 — Weekly Editions

The Distraction Index publishes as weekly editions. Each week (Sunday–Saturday) gets its own immutable snapshot. The current week updates live; past weeks are frozen permanently. Within a week, all events compete on raw scores. No data is ever changed after the week closes.

Damage — Constitutional Damage Score

7 weighted drivers scored 0–5, combined with severity multipliers, mechanism modifier, and scope modifier.

A = min(100, 100 × Σ(weight × driver / 5) × avg(severity) × mechanism × scope)

Drivers & Weights

Election Integrity & Transfer of Power0.22
Rule of Law / Due Process0.18
Separation of Powers0.16
Civil Rights / Equal Protection0.14
Institutional Capture0.14
Corruption / Self-Dealing0.1
Violence / Intimidation Enabling0.06

Severity Multipliers (each 0.8–1.3)

  • Durability — How lasting is the change?
  • Reversibility — Can it be undone by next administration?
  • Precedent — Does it create dangerous new norms?

Mechanism Modifiers

Election Admin Change×1.15
Judicial/Legal Action×1.1
Enforcement Action×1.1
Personnel Capture×1.05
Policy Change×1.05
Resource Reallocation×1
Information Operation×0.95
Norm Erosion Only×0.9

Hype — Distraction/Hype Score

Layer 1 measures raw hype (55% weight). Layer 2 measures strategic manipulation (45% weight, modulated by intentionality evidence 0–15).

B = 100 × (0.55 × L1_avg/5 + intent_weight × L2_avg/5)

Intentionality Thresholds

≥ 8/15 → Full strategic weight (0.45)
4–7/15 → Reduced weight (0.25)
< 4/15 → Minimal weight (0.10)

Classification & Dominance Margin

Events are assigned to the Damage list, Hype list, or Noise list based on dominance margin (Damage − Hype). A ±10 threshold prevents bucket thrash. Events with both high Damage and high Hype scores receive a MIXEDbadge. List C catches low-salience events (A < 25 AND B < 25) and those failing the noise gate (A < 25, no institutional mechanism).

Smokescreen Index

Pairs high-B distraction events with high-A damage events using temporal overlap and displacement evidence.

SI = (B × A / 100) × (0.7 + 0.3 × displacement_confidence)

Weekly Freeze Policy

Weeks freeze Saturday 23:59 ET. Individual events freeze after 48h or at week-end, whichever comes first. Post-freeze corrections are append-only notices — original scores are the permanent record.