Weekly civic intelligence report · v2.2
Trump administration announces tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China to be implemented Saturday with no word on exemptions. The announcement creates uncertainty among business leaders and supporters, particularly in Texas.
A-score: Rule of law (2) for unilateral tariff authority use without clear statutory process; separation (3) for executive action bypassing normal trade negotiation/congressional oversight; capture (2) for policy serving specific economic interests. Policy_change mechanism modifier 1.3, international scope 1.2. Severity: durability 1.1 (tariffs can persist), reversibility 0.9 (easily reversed by same executive). Base: (0×0.22 + 2×0.18 + 3×0.16 + 0×0.14 + 2×0.14 + 0×0.10 + 0×0.06)×1.0×1.1×0.9 = 11.2×0.99 = 11.09. With modifiers: 11.09×1.3×1.2 = 17.47. B-score: Layer1 (55%): outrage_bait 3 (business uncertainty, supporter nervousness), meme_ability 2 (tariff Saturday), novelty 2 (repeated tariff threats), media_friendliness 4 (economic impact stories, futures coverage) = 11/20×55 = 30.25. Layer2 (45%): mismatch 3 (economic harm vs stated goals), timing 4 (Saturday implementation, pre-market), narrative_pivot 3 (trade war framing), pattern_match 4 (repeated tariff threat cycle) = 14/20×45 = 31.5. Intentionality 8/15 = 0.53 weight. Final: 30.25 + (31.5×0.53) = 43.97. D-score: 17.47 - 43.97 = -26.5. List B classification: B>=25 AND D<=-10. High hype relative to constitutional damage, classic tariff threat pattern with uncertain implementation.
Monitor actual tariff implementation vs announcement rhetoric. Track exemption patterns and economic impact data vs media coverage intensity. Document separation of powers implications if tariffs bypass normal trade authority processes. Assess whether this follows established pattern of tariff threats used for negotiation leverage vs actual policy implementation.