Weekly civic intelligence report · v2.2
Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy military forces in Minnesota amid civil unrest and ICE operations. This represents an escalation in federal intervention rhetoric.
Constitutional damage: High rule_of_law (4) for threatening military deployment domestically, high separation (4) for executive overreach into state jurisdiction, moderate civil_rights (3) for chilling effects on protest/assembly, moderate capture (2) for politicizing military, low violence (2) for threat context. Severity multipliers: durability 1.1 (rhetoric creates precedent), reversibility 1.0 (threat not yet executed), precedent 1.2 (Insurrection Act invocation rare/significant). Mechanism modifier 0.6 (norm_erosion_only - threat without execution), scope 0.85 (single_state, moderate population). Base 26.52, final 13.53. Distraction: Layer1 high (28/40) - extreme outrage_bait (8), high media_friendliness (9), moderate meme_ability (6), moderate novelty (5). Layer2 strong (26/40) - high pattern_match (8) with Trump military rhetoric, high mismatch (7) between threat severity and actual deployment, moderate timing (6) and narrative_pivot (5). Intentionality 9/15 (threat without action, state-specific targeting, ICE context, escalatory rhetoric) yields 0.55 weight. Final B-score 29.63. Delta -16.1 strongly negative. B>=25 and D<=-10 triggers List B classification.
Monitor for actual Insurrection Act invocation or military deployment orders. Track whether threat materializes into concrete action (would shift to List A/Mixed). Document state responses and legal challenges. Watch for pattern of similar threats in other states (scope escalation). Assess whether threat achieves policy objectives without execution (norm erosion effectiveness). Note: Rhetoric alone scores as distraction; execution would fundamentally alter classification to constitutional crisis.