Track whether Trump actually vetoes appropriations or routine bills over SAVE Act—this tests whether threat is performative distraction or genuine constitutional crisis. Monitor congressional response and whether leadership capitulates.
This represents a significant separation-of-powers challenge (president coercing Congress via veto threat on unrelated bills) and sets dangerous precedent for executive overreach, but the threat is temporary and reversible if Congress holds firm. However, the B-score dominates: high media-friendliness, strong emotional immigration framing, and strategic timing alongside two major court losses (VOA, Haitian status) suggests intentional distraction. The mechanism is policy_change but the actual governance impact depends on congressional response.