Weekly civic intelligence report ยท v2.2
Trump signed an executive order targeting Cuba's oil trade and threatened tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba, creating pressure on Mexico and other trading partners. This represents a unilateral economic enforcement action.
Executive order targeting Cuba oil trade with tariff threats represents unilateral economic coercion. Rule_of_law (3.5): Bypasses congressional authority over foreign commerce and tariff policy, uses executive power to impose economic sanctions without legislative input. Separation (3): Encroaches on Congress's constitutional authority to regulate foreign commerce and set tariff policy. Capture (1): Minor alignment with hardline anti-Cuba constituencies. Policy_change mechanism with international scope yields 1.15x and 1.2x modifiers. Severity: Durability 1.1 (executive orders easily reversed), reversibility 0.95 (trading relationships can resume), precedent 1.15 (expands unilateral executive economic warfare). A-score: 17.98. B-score driven by Layer1 (55%): outrage_bait 6 (Cuba as perennial political target), novelty 5 (new application of tariff threats), media_friendliness 7 (simple narrative, geopolitical drama). Layer2 (45%): pattern_match 6 (fits Trump's tariff-threat playbook), narrative_pivot 5 (shifts from domestic to foreign policy). Intentionality 6 (theatrical timing, symbolic Cold War target, base mobilization). Final B: 23.71. Delta: -5.73. Both scores below 25 threshold, A-score shows real constitutional mechanism but insufficient magnitude for List A.
Monitor for: (1) Congressional response asserting commerce clause authority, (2) actual implementation vs. threat posturing, (3) legal challenges on separation of powers grounds, (4) whether this becomes template for unilateral economic coercion against other nations, (5) Mexico's response and potential escalation into broader trade conflict.